Impact of COVID-19 in Sub Saharan Africa

By Michael Leonard Douglas

*Calamity News and Politics.com

*Our Man in Africa: Michael Leonard Douglas grew up in Birmingham, England. Michael has an undergraduate degree in Arts, with a major in Design.  Michael currently resides in Nairobi, Kenya. In addition to contributing to Calamity Politics, Michael manages a freelance writing company, WritersInc. Michael’s first piece for Calamity Politics was, “Animal Cruelty Linked to Human Rights.” 

COVID-19 Lands

Nigeria became the first Sub-Saharan African country to report a case of the novel coronavirus on February 25th 2020. The patient was an Italian who had flown in from Milan, Italy. Italy was one of the places hardest hit by COVID-19. Since it’s arrival in Sub-Saharan Africa, the disease has spread dramatically. The statistics change daily but as of last week South Africa led with 622,551 total cases followed by Nigeria at 53,727 cases, Ethiopia at 49,654 cases, and Ghana at 43,949 cases (WHO, 2020).

COVID-19 Measures in Africa

The moment the World Health Organization (WHO) declared COVID-19 a pandemic in February 2020, African countries rapidly established containment measures including,, the closure of borders, active promotion of hand washing, social gathering restrictions, and mask wearing. A COVID-19 awareness campaign was activated to debunk rising myths and mistruths surrounding the disease (Osseni, 2020). These quick actions taken by Sub-Saharan African governments are, so far at least, working to keep case numbers down.  In fact, Africa south of the Sahara still has a lower case rate than most of the world.

Africa’s Advantage in Young Demographic

Looking for explanations. One aspect that could explain the slow spread of COVID-19  in Sub-Saharan Africa is the relatively young age of the region’s population. Evidence has shown that older populations are hardest hit by COVID-19. Sub-Saharan Africa has a much younger population than China, the United States, and Europe and other areas already experiencing widespread infection. The median age is 38 in China and the United States, and 43 in the European Union.  In Sub-Saharan Africa (Kaneda & Ashford, 2020) the median age is less than 20 years.

COVID-19 Economic Threats

The pandemic has caused upheaval the world over, with livelihoods upended, businesses unable to operate and governments caught flat footed. The pandemic threatens recent economic gains made by Sub-Saharan African countries. Many countries are facing recession and stagnated growth prospects for  2020 ((IFC), 2020).

The Global Economy

The COVID-19 pandemic has transformed the global economy from a relatively stable one to one of increasing volatility. The coronavirus has taken a heavy toll on human life and has placed extreme pressure on the already weak health care systems in Sub-Saharan Africa and elsewhere in the world. The impact on the social and economic facets of African societies has been immense. COVID-19 is projected to cost the region between $37 and $79 billion in output losses in 2020. It has severely reduced agricultural productivity, weakened supply chains, escalated trade tensions, increased unemployment, and created job insecurity, and has exacerbated political and regulatory uncertainty (Bank, 2020).

The Economy of Sub-Saharan Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa has in the recent past made huge strides in economic development. In 2019, it was home to 10 of the fastest growing economies in the world, with the region’s growth numbers being led by Ethiopia, Rwanda, Ghana, Cote d’Ivoire, Senegal, Benin, Kenya, Uganda, and Burkina Faso. Due to the pandemic, the continent in 2020 is set to experience a steep increase in the proportion of people living in extreme poverty. The “informal sector,” which is a major source of income and employment, will be one of the hardest-hit by COVID-19 ((IFC), 2020).

The Private Sector

The pandemic is threatening all areas of the economy, including services and trade.  Value-chain disruption, has impacted commodity exporters and companies reliant on global value chains to source materials and sell their products. A reduction in foreign financing flows from remittances, foreign direct investment, and tourism pose a threat to business survival and jobs. Add to this, disruptions caused by containment measures most of which are detrimental to small businesses. Most small businesses are finding it impossible to operate under such harsh circumstances. The coronavirus and the economy being in such volatile conditions have  caused an upheaval on food supply chains threatening to significantly increase food insecurity ((IFC), 2020).

An Overview of the Job Market after COVID-19

An estimated 20 million African jobs may be lost, according to The African Union. The disruption by the COVID-19 pandemic has amplified many of the challenges already facing youth employment in Sub-Saharan Africa. The immediate impact on “informal employment” in Sub-Saharan Africa will be particularly acute for younger demographics (Acland, 2020).

What Measures to Adopt

In conclusion, one of the biggest priorities for the Sub-Saharan African region right now is to chart a recovery course even as governments continue making efforts to cushion citizens from the more negative impacts of COVID-19. World growth is projected to contract by 3% in 2020, a downward revision of 6.3 percentage points from January 2020 estimates. Contractions in major developed economies are expected between -5.2% and -9.1%. Aggregate real GDP growth for Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to decline by 1.6% in 2020 – the first annual GDP contraction reported by the IMF for the region since 1992 (Deloitte, 2020).

Proposed Solutions

Against this backdrop, there is urgency to implement regional measures such as the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA), which coupled with new trade facilitation measures, could significantly mitigate COVID-19’s negative impact. Governments must consider new, innovative and sustainable recovery approaches, with a heavier reliance on technology. Technology has presented itself as a new basic need in society apart from food, shelter, water, sanitation, and clothing. It is the one aspect that has allowed the economy to keep moving, albeit at a slower rate. Governments should also focus on regional agriculture and intra agro-production and trade, this will present an opportunity for many regional economies to break from reliance on food imports from outside the continent, and to achieve a higher level of self-sufficiency in food production at a regional level – shortening supply chains and boosting intra-regional trade (Deloitte, 2020)

References

(IFC), I. F. (2020, May). COVID-19 Economic Impact. Retrieved from International Finance Corporation (IFC); World Bank Group: https://www.ifc.org/wps/wcm/connect/05008fd5-a427-4fae-8521-fa6c73d82d88/20200529-COVID-19-Response-Brief-SSA.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CVID=n9xij1h

(WHO), w. H. (2020, August 30). COVID-19 in the WHO African Region. Retrieved from WHO Maps: https://who.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/0c9b3a8b68d0437a8cf28581e9c063a9

Acland, S. (2020, May 29). The Impact of COVID-19 on Youth Employment in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Roadmap for the Mobile Industry. Retrieved from GSMA| Mobile for Development: https://www.gsma.com/mobilefordevelopment/blog/the-impact-of-covid-19-on-youth-employment-in-sub-saharan-africa-a-roadmap-for-the-mobile-industry/#:~:text=M4D%20Donors-,The%20Impact%20of%20COVID-19%20on%20Youth%20Employment%20in%20Sub,Roadmap%20for%20the%

Bank, T. W. (2020, April 23). The World Bank in Africa. Retrieved from The World Bank: https://www.worldbank.org/en/region/afr/overview

Deloitte. (2020, May). Private equity and the post-COVID-19 economic recovery in Sub-Saharan Africa. Retrieved from Deloitte: https://www2.deloitte.com/ke/en/pages/finance/articles/private-equity-and-the-post-covid-19-economic-recovery-in-sub-saharan-africa.html

Kaneda, T., & Ashford, &. L. (2020, June 10). Sub-Saharan Africa’s Demographic and Health Characteristics Will Influence the Course of the COVID-19 Pandemic. Retrieved from PRB: https://www.prb.org/sub-saharan-africas-demographic-and-health-characteristics-will-influence-the-course-of-the-covid-19-pandemic/

Mold, A., & Mveyange, &. A. (2020, July). The impact of the COVID-19 crisis on trade; Recent Evidence from East Africa. Retrieved from Africa Growth Initiative at Brookings: https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/EAC_COVID_Mold_Mveyange.pdf

Osseni, I. A. (2020, June 17). COVID-19 pandemic in sub-Saharan Africa: preparedness, response, and hidden potentials. Retrieved from Tropical Medicine and Health: https://tropmedhealth.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s41182-020-00240-9

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